Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo today fumed over the results of the opinion poll conducted by Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES). The poll shows President Granger with a comfortable lead over PPP President Candidate Irfaan Ali. As per the poll, President Granger is enjoying a commanding 14 points lead over Irfaan Ali, with 50% expressing support for the President, and just 36% indicating support for the PPP candidate. Once these numbers remain unchanged or get better for President Granger, this will be the worse electoral defeat for the PPP since 1992.
Jagdeo attempted to dismiss the poll, claiming it is fake. However, he failed to provide a basis for this claim. He also failed to address the fact that CADRES is a reputable pollster with a track record of credible work in Barbados, Antigua, Grenada, and St. Lucia. Instead, he incredulously claimed that the poll had to be fake because President Granger is not calling snap elections. This is surprising because Jagdeo must know that an incumbent calls unscheduled elections when he thinks his poll numbers have peaked, and are likely to fall significantly by the time the elections are constitutionally due. All indications point to President Granger enjoying even better numbers by September of 2020, as his government wraps up its 5-year program of providing benefits to the Guyanese people.
In addition, things are likely to get worse for the PPP, as the investigation into the oil blocks giveaway pick up steam and reveal the extent of PPP corrupt actions. The fact that the oil block scam seems to be from the same playbook as the Berbice Bridge Scam, and the Skeldon Sugar Factory Scam, is likely to make voters wary about putting the PPP in charge of our oil wealth. Irfaan Ali’s 17 corruption charges will also undermine him, and the PPP, by the time the elections are constitutionally due in September 2020.
President Granger positive poll numbers are particularly worrying for Bharrat Jagdeo, because they strengthen the position of the faction within the PPP trying to oust Irfaan Ali as Presidential Candidate. Jagdeo’s strategy in selecting Irfaan Ali was to ensure that he had a weak candidate who cannot challenge him for the position of Opposition Leader after the elections. However, Ali’s selection was not well received, both at Freedom House and among the traditional support base. At Freedom House, people view him as weak, and likely to cost the party a number of parliamentary seats. A number of traditional supporters reflected on Ali’s arrogance and dismissiveness when they approach him while he was serving as Minister of Housing. These people vowed they would never vote for Irfan Ali.
The polls results have now given Jagdeo’s opponents a scientific basis to champion Ali’s removal. Ironically, this is a lose-lose situation for Jagdeo. If Ali is retained, the party will suffer its worse defeat, and Jagdeo will be damaged. People will see him as putting his desire to remain relevant ahead of the interest of the party. This would most likely result in Clement Rohee returning as Party General Secretary. If Ali is replaced, this will be done on the basis that the new candidate will be Opposition Leader. Jagdeo’s political relevance will wane over time. It is no wonder Jagdeo is so rattled by President Granger’s positive poll numbers.