Shortly after the close of poll on March 02, 2020, the PPP declared victory. They started to publish fictitious exit polls showing the PPP with 55% and APNU-AFC only 35%. As time when by, and the count started, they claimed victory after the declaration of results from each region. The fact that they won these same regions in 2015, but still lost the election, was totally ignored.
It was clear the PPP had a strategy to undermine the credibility of the results. They tried to convince all who would listen, that their position was impregnable, and something would be wrong if they were to lose. Even the Stabroek News joined the party. They erroneously argued, given the trend of votes, there is no way the government could have overcome the 51,439 lead the PPP had. This is wrong.
A look at the numbers show a different story. When the results of 2015 and 2020 are compared, an increase in the net votes for both parties is reflected in nine of the ten Regions. In Region 7, APNU-AFC net vote was reduced by 32%, since in 2015 they received 1618 votes now than the PPP, but in 2020 they only received 1097 votes more than the PPP.
At the time of the Stabroek News article, the results for all regions, except Region 4, were released. These results show the PPP increasing their net votes in Regions 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 9, by 19%, 31%, 24%, 17%, 31%, and 2% respectively. These were strong performance for a party that ran what appeared to be a lackluster campaign. What about if APNU-AFC were to match these performances in Region 4, the bastion of it support base.
In 2015, the APNU-AFC had a net vote of 43,615 in Region 4. The table below shows what the Stabroek News could have expected if the APNU-AFC matched the PPP performance.
If the Stabroek News had taken the time to look at the trends they would have noticed some significant pointers. They would have noticed, if the APNU-AFC performed in Region 4, as the PPP performed in Regions 1, 2, 3 and 6, the lead of 51,439 votes enjoyed by the PPP would have been erased.
We understand why the PPP would want to pretend Region 4 results could not give the APNU-AFC net votes greater than 51,439. They want to undermine the credibility of the results. They planned to create an atmosphere of tension after the declaration of results. Plus, Bharat Jagdeo needed to divert the anger of his supporters, lest the turf him out as Party General Secretary, because this is his third straight electoral defeat. But, why would Stabroek News, a supposed independent newspaper, do the same thing?
Tonight GECOM released Region 4 results showing a 35% increase in net votes for APNU-AFC. This is in keeping with the trend. This is in keeping with the hype. This was not unexpected given the massive closing rally APNU-AFC held in Region 4 two days before the election. Region 4 has elected President David Granger to a second term.